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Weather Outlook 4th August 2019 (12 noon)

  • Outlook

A WEATHER ALERT remains in effect for St. Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG)…Un-favourable conditions are resulting in degeneration of the elongated area of low pressure east of the island chain. An associated low pressure centre near 13.6N 56.5W with low chance (10%) of development into a tropical depression, having low values in convective available potential energy. The leading edge stretches across the island chain this morning and moisture levels are sufficient to bring significant rainfall accumulations across some islands. Residents and motorists across St.Vincent and the Grenadines should remain alert, especially in areas prone to flash-flooding and thunderstorm activty….

See image below at 11:30am this morning compliments RAMMB.

Mostly cloudy skies are expected across SVG this afternoon; becoming overcast by evening with periods of rain, occasional moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorm activity persisting on Monday. Instability should remain elevated with the next tropical wave moving across the northern Windward and Leeward Islands on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. A northward positioning of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) should add equatorial moisture and instability.

The next tropical wave should be approaching by late Wednesday. Moderate to occasionally fresh east north-easterly surface winds (20 - 40 km/h) could gust to near 45km/h overnight and veering to south-easterly by morning. Wind speeds should be decreased during Monday due to the low pressure area, to light/gentle southerly breeze by evening. Varying directions are expected late Tuesday.

Sea conditions are slight to moderate in open water with east north-easterly swells ranging 1.0 - 2.0 m across SVG. Slight (0.5 - 1.2 m) seas are expected by Wednesday originating from east south-east.

Barometric readings should range 1012 - 1014 mb, gradually rising by Tuesday (1016mb).

 

Tropical waves between west coast Africa and Lesser Antilles:  

Along 21W/22W from 18N southward with widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rain-showers, possibly more related to the ITCZ, from 07N to 11N between Africa and 30W…2340miles away

Along 37W/38W from 17N southward, ITCZ-related isolated moderate to locally strong rain-showers from 05N to 10N between 30W and 43W. Rain-showers are possible from 10N to 20N between 30W and 50w …1380miles away…late Wednesday into Thursday 8th

Along 55W/56W from 18N southward with a 1013 mb low pressure center near 13.6N 56.5W and isolated moderate rain-showers are from 13N to 16N between 50W and 60W. Significant development of this system is not anticipated…300miles away… first portion crossing Windwards Islands tonight into Monday 5th and second portion across Leewards and Northern Windwards Islands Tuesday 6th

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