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Weather Outlook 4th September 2019 (12 noon)

  • Outlook

The next tropical wave should be crossing the island chain tonight and scattered showers are expected across the Grenadine islands overnight spreading across St. Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) during Thursday. The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is nudging northward and could add to instability across the area to result in possible thunderstorm activity. Upper level features could support

more showers and thunderstorm activity during Friday as equatorial moisture converges across our islands. Shower activity should be decreased during Saturday, but instability should linger to late Saturday.

Advisories are being issued on Hurricane Dorian, Storm Fernand, Tropical Storm Gabrielle and a trough of low pressure west of Bermuda, has medium (50%) chance possibility for development into a tropical depression during the next couple of days. 

Over the next few days, the Monsoon trough more…in the Central Atlantic would be monitored for possible developments. A tropical wave emerging over the far eastern tropical Atlantic, has a 60% chance of developing over the weekend or early next week and move west to west-northwestward across the Atlantic Ocean…any developments will be monitored.

Gentle to moderate (15 - 30 km/h) north-easterly breeze should veer to south-easterly overnight with the crossing of a tropical wave. A gradual reduction to light breeze may be noticeable by late Thursday and a south-easterly flow should continue into Saturday. 

Sea conditions across SVG are slight to moderate, peaking near 1.2m on west coasts and near 1.5m on east coasts, but a decrease is expected on Thursday becoming slight (0.5 -1.2m) across SVG, before increasing by Saturday afternoon Slight haze across the islands should be thinned out during Thursday as moisture moves into our area.

Tropical waves and troughs between west coast Africa and Lesser Antilles: 

Along 50W from 04N-22W, moving W at 10-15 kt with widely scattered moderate convection is from 14N-21N between 47W-52W...600miles away…vicinity Thursday 5th