A low level trough is creating weak instability with occasional showers across our islands today. Additionally, a wake cloud stretching off the west coast of Barbados during late morning, should reach mainland St.Vincent and northern Grenadine islands by mid-afternoon.
The next tropical wave should be crossing the islands on Sunday, with some showers possible across St.Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) by afternoon
The Atlantic High Pressure is dominant across the islands. A weak trough should trail across the islands on Friday, followed by a low level trough creating weak instability with scattered showers on Saturday. Gentle to occasionally moderate (10 – 30km/h) south-easterly wind-flow should become north-easterly by late Friday.
The northward positioning of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the leading edge of a tropical wave created cloudy skies across our islands from mid- morning. Showers and thunderstorm activity should move across the islands later today, with instability being elevated on Thursday…Residents and motorist should be alert for possible flash-flooding and thunderstorm activity later today into Thursday.
Instability remains elevated across the islands with moisture pooling ahead of another tropical wave/trough which detached from previous tropical wave. The axis is expected to cross the northern Windward and Leeward Islands late Tuesday. A northward positioning of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) should add equatorial moisture on Wednesday. Following quickly behind, is another tropical wave to bring cloudy skies, showers and possibly thunderstorm activity across the island chain by Wednesday night into Thursday.
A WEATHER ALERT remains in effect for St. Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG)…Un-favourable conditions are resulting in degeneration of the elongated area of low pressure east of the island chain. An associated low pressure centre near 13.6N 56.5W with low chance (10%) of development into a tropical depression, having low values in convective available potential energy. The leading edge stretches across the island chain this morning and moisture levels are sufficient to bring significant rainfall accumulations across some islands. Residents and motorists across St.Vincent and the Grenadines should remain alert, especially in areas prone to flash-flooding and thunderstorm activty….
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity can be expected tonight as a trough trailing the last tropical wave crosses the island chain. Saturday should be slightly hazy with thin dust patches. Late Saturday, a weak shearline propagating from the area of low pressure east of the Lesser Antilles could bring occasional showers across the island chain and instability should be elevated on Sunday.
There are scattered showers across our area, ahead of the approaching tropical wave. The relatively dry axis should cross our area this evening, but moisture behind the axis should bring scattered showers overnight into Friday. Isolated thunderstorm activity is possible by late Friday with a trailing trough. Few isolated showers are possible Saturday and Sunday as weak shearline features associated with a broad area of low pressure, propagate across the islands.
The tropical wave which affected our area late Saturday and Sunday has since moved into the Caribbean Sea and is now being tracked as a disturbance. The disturbance is moving away from our islands expected to bring heavy rainfall and possibly some flooding across portions of these islands. Little or no development of this disturbance is anticipated during the next couple of days. However, conditions could become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation as the system reaches the Florida Straits or the Bahamas over the weekend.
A weak lower level trough ahead of approaching tropical wave crossed the islands with some showers and thunderstorm activity this morning. Patches of dust with varying intensity should be thinned-out across our area tonight, as the well-defined tropical wave approaches the region.
The tropical wave is well organized with ‘some spin’, but further development is not expected as dry air is being entrained in the spin. Skies should become increasingly cloudy with periods of rain, pockets of moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorm activity moving across the islands overnight. Occasional squally conditions with winds from varying directions are expected during Sunday...Be Alert for possible flash-flooding
The Atlantic High Pressure System is dominant across the islands, but low level cloud patches moving within the wind-flow could bring brief isolated showers. A weak lower level trough should cross the area on Saturday. Meanwhile dust concentrations of varying intensity and associated dry-air are analyzed in the upper lower to mid levels