A tropical wave is crossing the Eastern Caribbean (SVG included), to result in increased cloudiness with periods of rain, moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorm activity tonight continuing on Sunday. See image at 4:45pm, compliments RAMMB ….Instability and moisture levels could remain elevated on Monday and Tuesday as easterly waves pulsing off the ITCZ move northward across the island chain.
Favourable upper level pattern could support occasional moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorm activity. Models indicate significant rainfall accumulations over the next few days, could be near 3inches (75mm) once conditions allow...Residents and motorists near rivers, streams and low lying areas should be alert.
Expect moderate (20 - 30 km/h) breeze, occasionally gusting near showers. Barometric Pressure readings should range 1011 mb – 1013 mb.
No significant dust concentrations are expected overnight into Sunday, but visibility may be reduced within showers/rain episodes. Some thin dust patches may cross our area late Monday and Tuesday occasionally reducing visibility.
Expect slight (0.5 - 1.2m) seas on the west coasts and moderate (1.2 - 2.0m) seas on the east coasts.
NOTES: Three tropical waves are moving westward and T.S. Leslie swirls in the Atlantic.
· Tropical wave off coast of West Africa along 18W from 03N- 17N, moving west at 10 kt. GOES-16 TPW imagery shows a moisture maximum surrounding the wave. The wave also has an associated 700 mb trough. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-12N between 12W-24W….. about 2580 nmiles away
· Tropical wave along 40W from 03N-16N, moving west at 15 kt. GOES-16 TPW imagery shows a moisture maximum surrounding the wave. The wave also has an associated 700 mb trough. Widely scattered moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 08N-14N between 32W-40W...…. about 1260 nmiles away….. vicinity Tuesday 9th (may temporarily show signs of circulation on Sunday, but forward motion slows )
· Tropical wave is along 57W from 06N-18N moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave has an associated 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 08N-12N between 46W-57W.…. about 240 nmiles away… vicinity tonight into Sunday 7th
At 5:00 pm, a disturbance (Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen), near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 86.6 West was moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A motion toward the north is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance should move near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight through Sunday night, and then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.
At 5:00 pm, Tropical Storm Leslie was near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 54.5 West moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster motion toward the east and east-southeast is expected through the middle of next week, taking Leslie across the central and eastern Atlantic. SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the northeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
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