Multi-layered clouds should continue this afternoon and tonight, with occasional showers converging across our area, brought by north-east trades and supported by upper level conditions. A tropical wave/lower level trough should cross the islands during Monday but a temporary shift in upper level trough should inhibit shower activity. Moisture converging behind the trough axis combined
with re-positioning of the upper level trough could result in return of cloudiness with scattered showers by Monday night. Instability with scattered showers are expected on Tuesday, possibly intensifying by nightfall as a shear-line deepens across the area…near 1 inch (25mm) rainfall accumulation possible Tuesday night, with instability lingering on Wednesday.
Mostly moderate (15 - 30km/h) north-east trades with directions varying as troughs cross our area, speeds should decrease to gentle (10 - 25km/h) from Tuesday afternoon.
Mean Sea level Pressure readings should dip this afternoon to range 1010 - 1012mb, possibly decreasing further to 1009 - 1011mb by Tuesday.
Slight seas on the west coasts should range 0.6m - 1.2m; while on the east coasts slight to moderate seas should range 1.2m - 2.2m with north-easterly swells, slightly falling across SVG to range (0.5m -1.8m) towards mid-week.
Fairly good visibility is being experienced across our horizon, with slight haze possible late Tuesday with thin dust patch.
Notes:
Tropical wave along 33W from 14N southward moving west at 10-15 kt with scattered moderate to isolated strong convection associated with the wave is seen from 03N-10N between 27W-35W…. about 1680 nmiles away… vicinity Thursday
Tropical wave along 54W from 15N southward to French Guiana moving west around 10 kt. Isolated showers are near the wave axis from 07N-10N… about 420 nmiles away… vicinity Monday
The ITCZ continues from 10N20W to 07N26W to 06N32W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 07N35W to 07N44W. Disorganized scattered moderate convection extends to within 150 nm north and 360 nm south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 18W-27W. Scattered moderate convection extends to within 330 nm north of the ITCZ between 35W-44W
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