Moisture converging behind a trough axis, combined with re-positioning of an upper level trough could result in cloudiness with showers returning across our area tonight. Instability with scattered showers can be expected on Tuesday with scattered showers, possibly intensifying by nightfall along with thunderstorm activity as a shear-line deepens across our area. Instability is expected to linger on Wednesday

and occasional upper level support could enhance shower activity also on Thursday. Models indicate that over the next three days (72 hour period) rainfall accumulations of about 3 - 4 inches (75 – 100 mm) are possible across parts of St. Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG), with greater amounts in mountainous areas…. Residents and motorists should be alert… Further, favourable conditions may allow for an area of low pressure to deepen across the island chain on Friday, possibly centering across the Leeward Islands by Saturday… this will be monitored.

Moderate (20 - 30km/h) east north-east trades are expected overnight, gradually decreasing by Tuesday afternoon and veering to east south-easterly early Wednesday. Direction should back again late Thursday with east north-easterly gentle to moderate (15 - 25km/h) breeze.

Mean Sea level Pressure readings are decreasing and expected to range 1009 - 1011mb during Tuesday. Fluctuations between 1009mb and 1012mb can be expected on Wednesday and Thursday as a 1026mb High Pressure center struggles to dominate the Atlantic Ocean.

Slight seas on the west coasts should range 0.6m - 1.2m; while on the east coasts slight to moderate seas should range 1.2m - 2.0m with north-easterly swells. BY late Wednesday, seas across SVG should range 0.5m to 1.8m.

Fairly good visibility is being experienced across our horizon, but visibility could decrease with slight haze late Tuesday as a thin dust patch crosses the area.

 

Notes:

Tropical wave along 37/38W from 15N southward moving west around 5 kt. Numerous moderate/isolated strong convection seen from 05N-11N between 35W-38W. Scattered showers are elsewhere between 32W-41W from 02N-14N…. about 1380 nmiles away

Tropical wave across the Lesser Antilles and currently along 61W from 07N-17N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are seen from the coast of Guyana and NE Venezuela to 13N between 55W-61W, including over Trinidad. Scattered moderate convection is from 16N-19N between 57W-64W, including over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands. This activity is likely to spread over Puerto Rico this afternoon. Most of this convection is enhanced by mid-upper level cyclonic flow to the north and west of the area .… moisture converging behind axis, across SVG tonight