Weather Outlook 5th February 2019 (12 noon)

Limited moisture at the lower levels could sustain partly cloudy skies with brief isolated showers across our islands. Tuesday night/early Wednesday another ‘dry’ trough should be approaching the region, with isolated showers possible ahead of the axis and after its crossing late Wednesday into Thursday. Latest analysis indicates that the mid-levels are expected to remain dry. However, a shift Atlantic High

Pressure Center eastward along with an upper level-long-wave trough should result in increased upper level moisture and support for showers on Thursday (30% probability). The eastward shift would accommodate two low pressure areas deepening off the south-east continental US and merging with another off the east coast of North America by mid-week. The merged low pressure area should move eastward across the North-Atlantic Ocean, with trailing trough inducing weak instability just north-east of the island chain late Thursday into Friday.

Winds are veering with height and the east south-easterly flow at the surface should bring few low level clouds and warm, gentle to moderate (15 - 30km/h) breeze  across the islands (air temperature at our Argyle station this morning reached 30.5oC). Directions should be varying on Thursday, after the crossing of the trough, with increasing speeds by evening to fresh breeze.

Slight to moderate sea conditions (1.0 – 1.5m), are expected across St. Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG), with wave heights gradually rising by midweek.

Barometric readings should range 1013 – 1016mb, occasionally tipping at 1017mb ahead and behind the trough axis. A slight dip may occur by late Thursday with weak instability north-east of the island chain. 

No significant dust concentrations are expected across our area, but very slight haze may be noticeable on our horizon due to patches of thin dust concentrations….JMCD