Weather Outlook 11th October 2018 (12 noon)

Showers and thunderstorm activity are converging across our area, as gentle to occasionally light south easterly winds bring equatorial moisture. A north-south orientation of a mid level trough could also support enhanced shower/ thunderstorm activity overnight. Models indicate that rainfall accumulations near 1 inch (25mm) are possible across parts of SVG, this afternoon into late evening. Residents and

motorists near rivers, streams and low lying areas should be alert…. Cloudiness and shower activity should be decreasing by early Friday, with the southward migration of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to be near Guianas by Friday. At the upper levels, the eastward movement of a low pressure area could enhance short wave troughs, supporting showers (especially across mainland St.Vincent and the northern Grenadines) on the south western edge of a Atlantic High Pressure System late Friday and Saturday. A lower level shearline could result in weak instability across our area on Sunday.

See image AT 12 noon compliments RAMMB

Expect gentle to occasionally light (10 - 20 km/h) east south-easterly breeze this afternoon, gradually increasing to moderate (up to 30km/h) early morning Friday. A temporary reduction in speeds (5-10km/h) should be noticeable Saturday night, with direction backing to north-easterly.

No significant dust concentrations are expected, but showers/rain episodes could occasionally reduce visibility.

Expect slight (0.5 - 1.2m) seas on the west coasts, with slight to moderate (1.0 - 2.0m) seas on the east coasts with north north-easterly swells. A slight decrease in wave heights (0.5 - 1.5m on east coasts) should be noticeable by late Saturday

Aviation WX

[Source: ADDS]
METAR
TVSA 180200Z 08012KT 9999 SCT014 27/24 Q1013 =
TVSA 180500Z 1806/1906 08012KT 9999 SCT016 SCT032 PROB30 TEMPO 1810/1816 SHRA RA BKN014 FEW015CB PROB30 TEMPO 1820/1902 SHRA RA BKN014 FEW015CB
TAF
TVSA 180500Z 1806/1906 08012KT 9999 SCT016 SCT032 PROB30 TEMPO 1810/1816 SHRA RA BKN014 FEW015CB PROB30 TEMPO 1820/1902 SHRA RA BKN014 FEW015CB =
SR / SS: 09:55 / 21:43 UTC (Sunrise Sunset 2018-10-18)