A broad area of low pressure near the Leeward Islands is associated with a Tropical wave near 61W south of 20N is moving west near 15kt. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, but could become more favorable for some development early next week.
The mid to upper level trough just east of the island chain should gradually fill and get caught up in westerly flow later tonight. However, an upper level low just east of Bahamas producing few short wave troughs, could deepen (double-cell) by Sunday, with diffluent pattern and elevated moisture over the island chain. This could maintain instability lingering across the island chain tonight into Sunday. Additionally, an easterly wave with wind surge embedded in the ITCZ is expected to move across the area Sunday with moderate/strong vorticity at lower levels (850mb). Rainfall accumulations of over 2 inches are possible Sunday. By Monday, ITCZ instability and another easterly wave crossing ahead of a tropical wave late Monday will maintain elevated moisture levels.
Saharan dust haze of varying intensity is also possible Sunday, thinning out by evening, then returns thicker by Tuesday night reducing visibility.
Moderate to fresh south-easterly breeze overnight, could agitate sea conditions to become moderate to rough by Sunday. A Small craft warning is in effect for above normal sea swells.