Dry air is moving across our area along with the wave axis today. Later this evening into tonight, moisture converging behind the axis/lower level troughing should result in partly cloudy to cloudy skies with scattered showers across SVG. A surface to low level shearline trailing the tropical wave should create some instability/scattered showers on Monday continuing into Monday night;
with upper level conditions possibly enhancing showers/thunderstorm activity. Pockets of dry air could persist on Tuesday at mid levels, but low level moisture could be supported by upper level resulting in scattered showers. By Wednesday, Tropical Storm (T.S) Florence should be positioned to the north east of the island chain but moving away, with an associated low level trough trailing the system creating occasional cloudiness across the island chain late Wednesday into Thursday. Gentle (10 - 20km/h) east north-easterly trades should prevail this afternoon to veer east south-easterly by Monday and gradually increasing to moderate (20-30km/h) breeze. Direction should back to easterly during Tuesday and east north-easterly by nightfall.
Barometric Pressure should range 1010mb - 1013 mb increasing slightly (1014 mb) early Monday, fluctuating between 1011mb and 1014 mb as instability crosses the area.
Expect slight (0.5 m – 1.2 m) east north-easterly swells across SVG until late Sunday, then swells should originating from east south-east by Monday due to presence of T.S Florence and rising again during Monday.
Good visibility is on our horizon, but hazy conditions could return late Monday and thinning out towards Wednesday.
Notes:
- At 1100 AM, the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 33.2 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected for the next few days. High Seas 24 HOUR forecast… TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE NEAR 17.5N 36.3W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 40 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS W OF 35W WITHIN 480 NM N AND 210 NM S SEMCIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
- Late Monday, another area of concern could be just off the African west coast…this will be monitored