Weak lower level instability continues to affect our area, while upper levels remain quite dry and subsident. A low to mid level trough is expected across the area tonight into Wednesday. Meanwhile, a low at mid-levels (relatively dry) should oscillate across the chain, shifting westward by Thursday.
A deep layered High Pressure area across the Greater Antilles and Leeward Islands is creating strong upper level subsidence across the eastern Caribbean( SVG included), and keeping the upper level low east of island chain. The surface low pressure area in the Atlantic Ocean could induce some instability across our islands Wednesday and Thursday. However, with the mid to upper levels expected to be quite dry, sustained deep convection will be inhibited. Thereafter, models suggest that moisture at mid levels should start increasing Friday as the High Pressure to the west weakens and mid-upper level trough weakens considerably to the east of the region. Another surface to mid level trough will approach the area by Saturday with increase chance of showers.
Gentle to moderate (12 - 28km/h) north-easterly breeze could temporarily be north-northeasterly early Wednesday; veering to east-southeasterly by Friday afternoon.
Slight (0.6m - 1.2m) seas on the west coast could become briefly flat(0 - 0.6m) Thursday, while moderate (1.2m - 1.5m) seas on the east coast with north-easterly swells should return generally easterly by Friday.
No significant reduction in visibility expected due to slight haze on horizon with fluctuating intensity.
Special feature: Strong upper-level winds and dry air should limit any cyclone development for the weak, non-tropical low pressure area east-southeast of Bermuda during the next couple of days while the system meanders over the central Atlantic.