Localized showers can be expected this afternoon, as a wake cloud stretches off the west coast of Barbados. Further, a tropical wave is approaching the islands, but dry and dust concentrations could inhibit shower activity as well as continue decreasing visibility. Hazy conditions should decrease overnight allowing for scattered showers as the tropical wave moves across the islands.
Models indicate that lower level moisture could increase, extending beyond 700 mb level overnight. Although pockets of dry air are moving along with the tropical wave, shower activity could be enhanced occasionally by weak upper level support late Thursday into Friday. Shower activity should remain just east of the island chain during Saturday.
Moderate (20 - 30 km/h) east south-easterly breeze should start backing to east-north-east as the tropical wave approaches the region tonight; followed by an east-south-easterly wind flow with moisture converging across our area on Thursday. Wind speeds should generally increase during Friday becoming moderate to fresh.
Mean sea-level pressure should generally range 1013 mb - 1016 mb as a low pressure area could deepen off east coast USA, weakening the Atlantic High Pressure System causing values be on lower range 1013 mb - 1014 mb overnight as tropical wave crosses.
Slight to moderate (1.0m to 1.8m) easterly sea swells can be expected, slightly rising by Friday to possibly peak 2.2 m on east coasts by Friday.
Dust concentration are expected to reduce visibility and air quality significantly by Friday night, with PM2.5 levels reaching near 20 µg/m3 and PM10 reaching near 30 µg/m3