Slightly hazy conditions should be giving way to moisture/showers associated with couple tropical waves crossing our area. Morning showers across our islands were due to moisture associated with an easterly wave (ahead of a Tropical wave axis). Later today, cloudy skies with shower activity could increase with periods of light rain as well as thunderstorm activity most likely by Monday.
The axis of tropical wave is just east of the island chain and is expected to cross the islands during Monday, with mid to upper level conditions supporting low level instability. Models indicate that moderate to heavy showers can result in rainfall accumulations near 1 and ½ inches (35 – 40 mm) during Monday, with further 2 inches (50mm) overnight Monday…. Residents and motorists near rivers, streams and low lying areas should be alert. Instability and moisture converging behind the tropical wave could linger into Tuesday.
Although shower activity should be decreased during Wednesday, another Tropical wave currently analyzed near 42W, should be approaching the islands late Wednesday.
Moderate (20 - 30km/h) breeze from the east south-east could tend towards fresh (35-40 km/h) Sunday-night and Monday-night. A more east-north-easterly wind direction may be experienced late Wednesday.
Mean sea-level pressure ranging 1016 - 1018 mb should be maintained. Slight sea swells on the west coast peaking near 1.2m and slight to moderate (1.2 – 1.8m) sea swells on the east coast can be expected, with temporary rise ranging 1.5 - 2.4 m Monday afternoon into early Tuesday.
Notes: The combination of a surface trough and an upper-level low pressure system is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms over the west-central Gulf of Mexico. This system is producing strong gusty winds over the northern and northwestern Gulf. Environmental conditions do not support significant development. However, heavy rains and gusty winds are likely across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico today.
In the eastern North Pacific, the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta At 11am, the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was estimated to be near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 101.3 West. Carlotta is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue into Monday. On the forecast track, the small core of Carlotta should move inland within the warning area by early Monday