This afternoon, a few brief isolated showers are possible due to localized effect and low level moisture. However, mid levels should remain relatively dry and no significant shower activity is expected until moisture associated with a Tropical wave moves into the area overnight.
Mid levels moisture should increase and an upper level diffluent pattern (due to positioning of an upper level trough from a cyclonic circulation near eastern Cuba) should result in showers on Thursday. Instability could allow for deep convective (thunderstorms) activity by Thursday afternoon.... Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches (25-50mm) are possible across parts of SVG…Residents and motorists near rivers, streams and low lying areas should be alert... Instability should linger into Friday with scattered showers decreasing by evening.
Another tropical wave with relatively dry mid levels, is expected across the area on Saturday with few isolated showers. By evening, an associated wind surge should move across our area with strong winds quickly pushing a narrow band of moisture. Trailing this surge is a thick plume of dust concentration expected by Sunday.
Moderate (20 - 30 km/h) easterly breeze could tend towards fresh (35 km/h) overnight while backing to north-east as the tropical wave axis approaches. Behind the axis, south-easterly wind flow can be expected with light winds during Thursday afternoon. Wind speeds should generally increase to fresh (20-40 km/h) by Friday becoming strong late Saturday until early Monday.
Mean sea-level pressure ranging 1014 - 1016 mb should rise to 1016-1018 mb during Thursday, falling back by Saturday. Slight sea swells on the west coast peaking near 1.2m and slight to moderate (up to 1.5m) sea swells on the east coast can be expected this afternoon. By late Friday, a rise in wave heights should be noticeable, with sea swells on west possibly peaking near 1.8m and near 2.4m on east by Saturday ….. Marine warnings may be issued.