A few scattered showers can be expected overnight, ahead of a tropical wave approaching the southern Windward Islands. Chance of showers should be increasing Thursday afternoon. However, mid to upper level troughing across our area has non-effect due to relatively dry air associated with Saharan Air/Dust Layer negating shower activity. Most of the shower activity is expected south of
the Grenadines.
Although the High Pressure should build across our area on Friday, it’s center is expected to shift away to the north-east of the Atlantic Ocean. This shift could allow lower pressure areas to link near the 10N latitude region.
On Saturday, a wind/moisture surge in the lower levels (ahead of the approaching tropical wave), could result in gusty winds along with showers. Moisture levels should generally increase Saturday afternoon as a deep amplitude Tropical wave approaches the islands. A wind shift along the wave axis may be noticeable between Saturday and Sunday as it crosses our area. Moisture and instability converging behind the axis at lower levels, along with mid-level moisture could result in moderate showers and periods of rain on Sunday. Upper levels could possible enhance activity and isolated thunderstorms are possible by evening.
East north-east fresh breeze overnight could tend toward strong briefly Thursday night (especially across the Grenadines). Late Friday, should be backing to north north-easterly late Saturday ahead of the deep amplitude wave.
A temporary thinning of dust haze concentrations resulted in improved visibility (20-40µg/m3) today. The passage of two tropical waves should keep the dust concentrations to patchy with varying intensity, but slight thickening is possible late Thursday to Friday night (40-80µg/m3).
Mean sea-level pressure should range 1014 1016 mb, rising slightly (1015-1018 mb) during Friday as the High pressure re-establishes briefly. Pressure values should start dipping late Friday as lower pressure areas to link near the 10N latitude region, our area could range 1012- 1014 mb by late Saturday.
Overnight and Thursday, slight sea swells can be expected on the west coasts to peak near 1.2m, while east coasts could experience slight to moderate swells peaking 2.0m. A slight rise is possible Thursday night to peak near 1.5m on west coasts and 2.4 m on east coasts.
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