A surface to low level shearline trailing a tropical wave created weak instability with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Grenadines today Tonight, upper level conditions could support few more showers across SVG. Tomorrow few showers can be expected, but pockets of dry air and dust concentrations could inhibit shower activity.
(See image at 5:15pm Compliments RAMMB). By Wednesday, Tropical Storm (T.S) Florence should be positioned to the north east of the island chain but moving away. However, a couple low level troughs trailing Florence could cross the island chain with shallow passing showers late Wednesday into Thursday. A northward pull of moisture associated with the ITCZ could increase the chance for showers late Thursday. Moderate (20 - 30km/h) easterly trades should prevail tonight, backing to east north-easterly on Tuesday. Speeds should decrease by Wednesday afternoon to gentle (10-20km/h), with veering sharply on Thursday to east south-easterly.
Barometric Pressure should range 1012 mb - 1014 mb, with fluctuations to lower ranges 1010 mb – 1012 mb associated with TS Florence instability late Wednesday and Thursday.
Expect slight to moderate (1.0m – 2.0m) east south-easterly swells across SVG, originating from east north-east during Thursday while increasing temporarily on east coast (1.2m - 2.4m).
Hazy conditions are expected overnight with dust concentration thinning out by Wednesday.
Notes:
- At 500 PM, the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 39.8 West, moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A slightly slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight, but some weakening is forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday…no threat to SVG.
- At 500 PM, the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 82.6 West moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next 72 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will move farther away from the southwestern coast of Florida early this evening, and move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Tuesday. The center of Gordon will approach the central Gulf Coast within the warning area late Tuesday or Tuesday night, and move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday…no threat to SVG.
- A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the African west coast. There is a medium chance (40%) for slow development of this disturbance is during the next several days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.…this disturbance (INVEST I) will be monitored as it tracks westward