Tropical Storm Florence continues to create a weak pressure gradient across our islands, resulting in light to gentle easterly winds this weekend. This afternoon, daytime heating along with light winds and adequate low level moisture, could result in localized showers and isolated thunderstorm activity. Alternating with dry air, a couple weak low level troughs induced by Florence will occasionally cross
the area with few showers.
As Florence moves away from the region tracking northwest while strengthening, this should allow TD.9/ T.S Isaac to further develop into a hurricane with a strong feeder band across the island chain by Tuesday night.
Increased instability is expected across the island chain on Wednesday with showers and thunderstorm activity very likely. The latest track projections indicate that TD9/ T.S Isaac could pose a threat to the Lesser Antilles as the system approaches the region. At 11 am, center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 36.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the west and an increase in forward speed are expected later today and tonight, with a westward motion continuing into early next week. The current track suggests the center of the system could approach the northern Windward Islands (Dominica/Martinique) by Thursday as a Category 1 Hurricane…see image next page with projection. Tropical Depression number 9 is expected to become a T.S. Isaac later today. 
Gentle (10 -20 km/h) breeze should be experienced this afternoon becoming light to almost calm by evening, then gradually increasing and backing to east north-easterly overnight. Directions could vary as weak troughs associated with Florence cross the area. A more north north-easterly breeze is expected with the approach of possible Isaac late Tuesday.
Barometric Pressure should range 1012mb -1014mb, fluctuating by Monday and falling (1010mb – 1012mb) Tuesday night as T.S. Isaac approaches region.
Expect slight sea swells (0.5 -1.5m) originating from north north-east by Saturday night, increasing on east coast towards Wednesday.
Slight haze due to dust concentrations could reduce visibility on Sunday, yet no significant dust mass expected over next few days.
T.S. Florence, T.S. Helene, and T.D. 9 as well as a trough of low pressure generating disorganized showers near Bermuda. See image at 1445z (11:45AM) compliments CIMMS
Notes:
· By Tuesday, another area of low pressure could emerge off the African West coast.
· At 11:00 am, the center of Tropical Storm Florence was near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 54.3 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected by the middle of next week. Florence is becoming better organized and expected to strengthen to a hurricane tonight.
· At 11:00 am, the center of Tropical Storm Helene was near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 20.6 West. Helene is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion will likely continue through Sunday. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected Sunday night through Tuesday.
· At 11:00 am, the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 36.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the west and an increase in forward speed are expected later today and tonight, with a westward motion continuing into early next week… about 1680 mi...2700 km east of the WINDWARD ISLANDS. Tropical Depression number 9 is expected to become a TROPICAL STORM later today.
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