Tropical Storm Florence continues to create a weak pressure gradient across our islands, with light to gentle easterly winds. For a short period this afternoon, isolated showers occurred with cloud build ups just off the south-west coast of mainland St.Vincent. Florence is moving slowly westward, but should be moving away from the region by tomorrow tracking west north-west at a much faster forward speed.
Image at 4:45pm compliments CIMMS
Dry air and light winds are resulting in uncomfortable warm conditions at times, as weak low level troughs being induced by Florence cross our area with little shower activity. A few scattered showers can be expected overnight and isolated showers on Monday, with chances for showers being depleted on Tuesday due to dry air.
Late Tuesday, a feeder band from Isaac could be across the island chain with increased instability and moisture converging on Wednesday across the Eastern Caribbean resulting in showers and thunderstorm activity.
Gentle (10 -20 km/h) easterly breeze should be experienced overnight, veering and increasing slightly by Monday afternoon. A more north north-easterly breeze is expected with the approach of Isaac late Tuesday. As the system is projected to pass north of St.Vincent and the Grenadines, we could experience a backing light (6 -10 km/h) wind during Wednesday from the north north-west. By Thursday morning, we anticipate a sharp increase in wind speeds (30-40km/h) coming from the south.
Barometric Pressure should range 1010 mb -1012 mb, fluctuating on Monday (up to 1014 mb); as Isaac approaches the region readings should be falling by Tuesday to range 1008 mb - 1010 mb by Wednesday.
Expect smooth to slight sea swells less than 1.2m originating from north north-east, sharply increasing during Wednesday with slight (0.5 - 1.2m) seas on the west and possibly moderate to rough (1.5 - 3.0m) on the east coasts by Thursday morning.
Notes:
· By Tuesday, another area of low pressure could emerge off the African West coast ·
· At 5:00 pm, the center of Hurricane Florence was near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 57.0 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected by Monday, and that motion is forecast to continue through mid-week. Florence is forecast to become a MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY.
· At 5:00 pm, the center of Hurricane Helene was near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 26.0 West. Helene is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Monday, with a continued west north-westward motion through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). Additional strengthening is forecast.
· At 5:00 pm, the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 40.3 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and is expected to accelerate during the next 36 hours. about 1390 mi...2240 km east of the Windward Islands A westward motion is forecast to continue through the end of the week, with Isaac expected to move across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea Wednesday night or Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Isaac is expected to become a hurricane tonight. However, weakening is anticipated by the middle of the week while Isaac approaches the Lesser Antilles.
Visit us on facebook