At 11:00 AM, the center of Tropical Depression Isaac was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 67.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a turn to the west-northwest is possible early next week if Isaac survives. Rain-bands of rain from Isaac continue to affect the Lesser Antilles. Models indicate rainfall accumulations of 25 to 30 mm (1 and 1/2 inches)
are possible across SVG into Saturday, in the wake of Isaac. Instability across our area with showers are being enhanced by a south south-easterly wind flow at the lower levels and supported by mid and upper level conditions. Overnight, moderate to heavy thunderstorm activity occurred across SVG. Lingering moisture at the lower levels should maintain occasional cloudiness with decreased instability by late Saturday into Sunday.
Late Sunday, lower level trough is expected across the area late Sunday increasing chance for showers. Moisture associated with the next tropical wave should be approaching the islands late Monday. Wind speeds have picked up in the wake of Isaac, with moderate to fresh (20 - 35km/h) south-easterly breeze expected this afternoon; gradually backing to easterly by Sunday afternoon and becoming north easterly by Monday.
Barometric Pressure should range 1011mb - 1012mb, with some fluctuations overnight. A gradual increase is expected over the weekend to range 1011mb - 1012mb by Monday.
Small craft operators and sea bathers are asked to exercise caution especially on the east coast where swells could be above normal this afternoon. Swells should be decreasing across SVG, with ENE swells across SVG ranging 1.0 -2.0m from tonight. An increase in wave heights can be expected by late Monday.
Slight haze on the horizon may reduce visibility by Saturday afternoon into early next week, due to a patch of dust concentration across the area.
NOTES:
A tropical wave has an axis extending from 05N28W to 20N28W, moving W around 15 kt. The wave is embedded in an area of abundant moisture as indicated in TPW satellite imagery and coincides with well pronounced 700 mb troughing depicted in the GFS model guidance. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is taking place from 07N to 11N between 28W and 35W… about 1560mile leading edge and axis 1980 nautical miles away… vicinity Wednesday
- At 11:00 AM, the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 44.6 West. Joyce is moving toward the south near 8 mph (13 km/h). Joyce is forecast to slow its forward motion and turn eastward by tonight, and then accelerate northeastward over the weekend.
- At 11:00 AM, the center of Hurricane Helene was located near 32.9 North, longitude 36.3 West. Helene is moving toward the north near 23 mph (37 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast Saturday followed by a turn toward the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, Helene will pass near or over the Azores late Saturday or Sunday
- At 11:00 AM, the center of the eye of Hurricane Florence was located Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 78.0 West. Florence is moving toward the west-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward to west-southwestward motion is expected today through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move further inland across extreme southeastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina today and Saturday. Florence will then move generally northward across the western Carolinas and the central Appalachian Mountains early next week.