Weak instability overnight associated with a mid-level trough could result in few scattered showers. Meanwhile, a tropical wave is approaching to be across the islands on Tuesday, with upper level conditions supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity possible by afternoon, with increasing chance for showers by nightfall.
Models indicate rainfall accumulations of < 1 inch (20 mm) associated with the tropical wave.
Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms can be expected Wednesday morning as instability lingers and by Wednesday night, the remnants of Depression Kirk should be approaching the Windward Islands. St. Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) can expect wide spread rain-showers with moderate to heavy downpours, gusty winds and thunderstorms on Thursday. Dust surrounding the remnants of “Kirk” may inhibit shower activity on Wednesday. However models suggest about 1 inch (20 - 25 mm) on Wednesday and near 2 inches (40-50 mm) possible on Thursday with a thinning of dust concentration…Therefore, residents and motorists should be alert near rivers, streams and areas prone to flooding…. Instability should remain elevated on Friday.
Expect east south-east gentle (10 - 20 km/h) breeze to increase and back to moderate (20-30 km/h) easterly breeze by early Tuesday morning. Moderate to fresh (25-40 km/h) breeze on Wednesday should back to north north-easterly Thursday morning. Gentle and occasionally calm conditions by midday could become fresh to possibly strong (30 - 45 km/h) and veer to south south-easterly by evening.
Barometric Pressure readings should be ranging 1011 mb - 1014 mb overnight, falling to lower end of range on Wednesday and falling further (1008 - 1010 mb) by early Thursday as the strong tropical wave/remnants of Kirk draw closer to the islands.
Sea swells are originating from the east north-east with heights 0.5 - 1.5m (1.5 - 5.0 ft) tonight increasing slightly by early morning to 1.0 - 2.0m. Further increases are expected overnight Tuesday, with swells peaking near 1.2 m (4 ft) on the west and near 2.5 m (8 ft) on our east coasts. The north-eastern coastlines of mainland St. Vincent can expect easterly swells by Thursday afternoon peaking near 3.0 m (10 ft) with passage of strong tropical wave/“remnants of Kirk”.
Fairly good visibility may be temporarily decreased Tuesday night with a detached patch of thick dust concentration across our area. Slightly hazy conditions are possible on Wednesday as dust surrounding the remnants of “Kirk” move across the islands. A thinning late Thursday may give way to more shower activity.
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Notes:
· Tropical wave along 16W from 03N-16N, moving west at 10 kt. The 700 mb trough associated with this wave is well depicted in model guidance and TPW imagery shows abundant moisture in its environment. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-17N between 10W-23W. .…. about 2700 nmiles away
· A sharp trough accompanied by an area of gale-force winds; the remnants of Kirk will be monitored during the next few days in case regeneration into a tropical cyclone should occur. The system is now a tropical wave along 39.5W south of 16N. A scatterometer pass showed gale force winds. Gale is also within 120 nm N Semicircle with seas to 14 ft. Visible satellite imagery shows a large area of dust from 07N-25N between34W- 51W, moving W surrounding the remnants of Kirk..…about 1260 nmiles away…vicinity late Wednesday/Thursday …residents and motorists in the Eastern Caribbean should continue to monitor.
· Tropical wave along 53W from 03N-16N, moving west at 10-15 kt. and corresponds with a maximum in TPW imagery. Models depict an associated 700 mb trough. Scattered showers are located from 07N-14N between 46W-54W.…. about 480 nmiles away … vicinity Tuesday·
A surface trough is just E of the Leeward Islands from 18N57W to 12N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90nm of the trough… overnight tonight/Monday night