At 5:00 pm, the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 60.2 West, moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwestward to westward motion is expected over the next couple days. The center of Kirk should move across the Lesser Antilles within the Tropical Storm Warning area this evening.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Kirk moves through the Lesser Antilles. T here has been some redevelopment of deep convection just northeast of the center this afternoon, but much of the convection is located well east and southeast of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
Light to moderate rain should increase to heavy showers with thunderstorms by early morning. Models indicate 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 millimeters) rainfall accumulations are possible, but higher amounts are very likely across parts of SVG especially in mountainous areas. Persons in areas prone to flooding and landslides, near rivers streams and low lying areas should be alert.
Light northerly breeze across SVG should increase by early morning, to 25 to 35 mph (40 to 55 km/h) with occasional gusts. Residents across SVG, should bear in mind that heavy rainfall and winds are occurring over the eastern portion of Kirk’s circulation. These winds and rains are likely to spread across SVG and other islands and possibly intensify by early morning. Locally higher winds are possible on the windward sides of hills and mountains. South-easterly fresh breeze could be expected by Friday afternoon with direction continuing to back and gradually decrease on Saturday.
Barometric Pressure readings should be ranging 1008 mb - 1012 mb overnight, gradually increasing on Friday to range 1012 mb – 1014 mb.
Sea swells are originating from the east peaking near 2.5m on the west and near 3.0m on the east coasts overnight. A slight reduction is expected on the west during Friday. However, By late Friday, northerly swells generated by Post-Tropical cyclone Leslie, are expected to propagate southwards across our area. The north-eastern and eastern coasts could be affected first, then these northerly swells should be across SVG by late Saturday afternoon. These large waves and dangerous rip-tides can create unsafe conditions for small-craft operators, and these conditions may become even more adverse at times of high tide. Sea-bathers and other users of the sea are being warned to stay out of the water.
A High-Surf Advisory and Small-Craft Warning remain in effect until 6:00 am Monday, 1st October. High Tide times are expected around:
8:49 pm tonight; 8:09 am and 9:44 pm on Friday; 8:51 am and 10:29 pm on Saturday;
9:35 am and 11:08 pm on Sunday
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