Tropical Storm Leslie meanders in the North Atlantic is expected to delay the approach of the next tropical wave to the island chain. Analysis indicates that lower level moisture should gradually increase late Monday with a low chance of few scattered showers on Tuesday, as the southern portion of the backward tilting axis crosses the southern Windward Islands, with a pocket of dry air at mid levels.
As the northern portion of the axis moves through the central and Northern Windward Islands on Wednesday, mid to upper level conditions could support occasional showers and possible isolated thunderstorm activity as a weak trough follows.
Expect easterly moderate to occasionally fresh (20- 35 km/h) breeze tonight, decreasing to moderate (15-25km/h) by Monday afternoon. East south-easterly gentle to moderate breeze by Tuesday morning should be temporarily gentle (10 – 20km/h) by afternoon.
Barometric Pressure readings should be around 1011mb – 1012mb overnight rising slightly on Monday, but dipping to 1010mb – 1012mb on Tuesday and Wednesday with the passage of the tropical wave and weak trough.
Visibility is gradually improving and should be much improved by Tuesday, to be reduced again late Wednesday behind the tropical wave/trough.
Although northerly swells should continue but a reduction in wave heights are occurring. However, small craft operators and sea bathers should be vigilant; the next High Tide time is around 11:08 pm tonight. The High-Surf Advisory and Small-Craft Warning should be discontinued from 6:00 am (tomorrow) Monday. Wave heights on the west should be reduced to 1.0m and on the east near 1.5m by Monday night/Tuesday and smooth seas may even be across our west coasts Tuesday night.
T.S Leslie should drift further south-west by Wednesday while intensifying, before she moves off to the north on Thursday. Thus, more northerly swells are expected to propagate southward in her wake, reaching the Lesser Antilles late Wednesday and reaching our islands (SVG) by Thursday with wave heights increasing again…Another High-Surf Advisory and Small-Craft Warning may be issued.
NOTES:
Tropical Storm Leslie t 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 53.2 West. Leslie is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow southwestward or southward motion is forecast during the next few days.
SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
S OF 19N BETWEEN 45W AND 61W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN N SWELL.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE..REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
Tropical wave along 32W/35W from 16N southward with widely scattered moderate to isolated strong ITCZ Rain-showers are from 11N to 12N between 22W and 26W. about 1560 nmiles away
Tropical wave along 49W/51W from 18N southward with widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rain-showers, probably with the ITCZ, are from 08N to 10N between 53W and 57W. Isolated moderate rain-showers are from 10N to 20N between 40W and 53W...…. about 600 nmiles away… vicinity SE .Caribbean Tuesday (backward tilt)
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