A tropical wave degenerated to shearline while crossing our area late Thursday into early morning Friday, with occasional showers and thunderstorm activity supported by favourable mid to upper level conditions; shower activity decreased by sunrise.
Few showers can be expected overnight into early Saturday as upper level conditions spreading westward across the island chain; from the Caribbean Sea, supports a weak lower level trough. Some moisture/instability off the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) could spread across the Southern Grenadines with few showers Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Meanwhile, the next tropical wave approaching the island chain should result in increased cloudiness with some showers late Saturday into Sunday. The possibility for thunderstorm activity should be increasing by nightfall into Monday.
Expect moderate to fresh (25 - 40 km/h) east south-easterly breeze this afternoon into Saturday, becoming moderate by Saturday night and backing to easterly by Sunday.
Barometric Pressure readings should range 1012 mb – 1014 mb with Atlantic High Pressure System building across the area, but dipping to lower end (1011 mb - 1012 mb) late Saturday as High Pressure shifts northward giving way to the next tropical wave.
There is slight haze on the horizon due to thin (20-40 ug/m**3) dust concentration across the islands which should clear to good visibility Sunday and Monday.
Slight (0.5 - 1.2m) seas on the west coasts and moderate (1.2-2.0m) seas on the east coasts in northerly swells, are propagating southward by ‘T. S Leslie’, swells should originate from east by Sunday.
NOTES : Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
· Tropical wave along 32W from 04N-17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Total Precipitable Water imagery shows a moisture maximum surrounding the wave. The wave also has an associated 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 11N-14N between 30W-34W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also E of the wave axis from 05N- 12N between 24W-30W. ..…. about 1740 nmiles away….. vicinity Tuesday 9TH
· Tropical wave along 49W/50W from 06N-17N moving westward at 10 kt. The wave has an associated 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-12N between 46W-55W.…. about 660 nmiles away… vicinity Sunday 7TH
· The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N16W to 10N22W to 09N30W. The ITCZ extends from 08N33W to 09N49W, then continues west of a tropical wave from 09N51W to the coast of northeast Venezuela near 09N60W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is from 12N-16N between 40W-43W.
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