A wake cloud off Barbados is expected to move across SVG during the afternoon. Additionally, instability and elevated moisture at lower levels, should continue tonight as easterly waves pulsing off the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), move northward across the island chain. At mid-levels, occasional pockets of limited moisture restrict shower activity. Favourable upper level pattern/conditions support
and enhance showers with occasional moderate to heavy downpours and thunderstorm activity. One such pulse is expected tonight and another late Tuesday from a degenerated tropical wave. By late Wednesday instability due to shearlines associated with an approaching tropical wave, could affect our islands ahead of the axis late Thursday. Models indicate near 2 inches (40-50mm) rainfall accumulations are possible over next few days… Residents and motorists near rivers, streams and low lying areas should be alert.
Expect moderate (20 - 30 km/h) east south-easterly breeze this afternoon with occasional gusts near showers, generally increasing to fresh (up to 40km/h) by nightfall. Direction should be backing to east north-easterly by Tuesday with moderate breeze veering to east south easterly late Wednesday. A reduction in speeds to gentle cand be expected on Thursday.
Barometric Pressure readings should range 1011mb – 1013mb, falling slight late Wednesday with instability across the area.
Although no significant dust concentrations are expected, occasional thin dust patches and showers/rain episodes may reduce visibility.
Expect slight (0.5 - 1.2m) seas on the west coasts and moderate (1.2 - 2.0m) seas on the east coasts.
NOTES:
· An area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave along 25W from 03N to 16N, several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection has become more concentrated since last night from 07N to 11N between 24W and 28W. Similar convection is within 60 nm of a line from 11N30W to 12N27W, and within 30 nm of 25N30W. This system has a medium (40-50%) chance for development into a tropical depression during next few days while it moves west-northwestward. However, upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable and system could become an open wave by Friday in Central Atlantic Ocean….. about 2160 nmiles away
· Tropical wave along 40W from 04N to 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 240 nm east of the wave from 10N to 15N. Similar convection is ahead of the wave within 60 nm of 13N45W....…. about 1260 nmiles away (late Wednesday shear lines spread across the islands, wave approach late Thursday 11th)
At 11:00 am, the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 47.0 West. Leslie is moving toward the east-southeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). An east-southeast to southeast motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected for the next several days
At 11:00 am, the center of Hurricane Michael was near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 84.9 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. The center of Michael will move northward near the western tip of Cuba this afternoon and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by tonight
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