The atmosphere has gradually dried out and limited moisture at mid to upper levels is expected overnight. However, few shallow showers could result from a weak lower level trough (shearline/pulse) which degenerated from a tropical wave. Increased cloudiness with few scattered showers can be expected late Wednesday, as instability due to weak shearlines associated with a tropical wave spread across
the islands. The approaching tropical wave could cause showers to converge across our area on Thursday, increasing by evening with possible troughing and moisture pooling at the upper levels. Additionally, the blend of gentle/light south easterly winds adding equatorial moisture, along with available daytime heating could enhance thunderstorm activity…Residents and motorists near rivers, streams and low lying areas should be alert (Thursday)…. Cloudiness and shower activity should be decreasing on Friday.
Expect moderate to fresh (20 - 35 km/h) east north-easterly breeze overnight, veering to east south easterly late Wednesday and decreasing to gentle during Thursday.
Barometric Pressure readings should range 1010 mb – 1012 mb, falling to lower end with instability crossing the area.
No significant dust concentrations are expected, but thin dust patches and showers/rain episodes may occasionally reduce visibility.
Expect slight (0.5 - 1.2m) seas on the west coasts and slight to moderate (1.0 – 1.5m) seas on the east coasts, rising to 2.0m by late Thursday. Mariners should note that easterly swells are expected to continue overnight, becoming north north-easterly by Wednesday.
At 5:00 pm, the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 43.0 West. Leslie is moving toward the south-southeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A slower motion and a turn toward the east-northeast or northeast is expected by Wednesday.
At 5:00 pm, the center of Hurricane Michael was near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 86.4 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. The center of Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The center of Michael is then expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the US on Friday.
At 5:00 pm, the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 30.6 West. Nadine is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a motion generally toward the northwest is anticipated over the next few days.
NOTES Based on 12z analysis:
· Tropical wave along 47W from 04N to 19N, moving westward near 15 kt. Isolated showers are noted from 08-17N between 42W-50W. The wave corresponds nicely with a 700 mb trough, as depicted by model analyses. TPW imagery depicts a broad moisture maximum associated with the tropical wave...... about 840 nmiles away (Wednesday afternoon- shear lines across the islands, moisture converges across area on Thursday 11th )
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