There is a High Pressure cell over the Western Atlantic near 38N66W and another 1025 mb High Pressure cell over the Eastern Atlantic near 33N33W, causing breezy conditions across our area. The remnants of ‘Tropical Storm Nadine’ are now being tracked as a tropical wave could bring few showers and possibly isolated thunderstorm activity across our area by early morning Tuesday.
During Tuesday increased moisture and instability due to possible merging of two tropical waves could affect the island chain, with cloudiness and widespread shower activity to be supported by favourable mid-to upper levels. Periods of light to moderate rain, occasional moderate to heavy showers with gusty winds along with thunderstorm activity could intensify by Tuesday evening/night. Copious amounts of rainfall are possible across parts of SVG, with models indicating in excess of 5 inches (125 mm) accumulations for the next few days (until Friday). Residents and motorists should be prepared, as rainfall accumulations may trigger flooding and land slippage…. Take precautions in mountainous areas, near rivers, streams and low lying areas.
Expect fresh (up to 40km/h) north north-easterly breeze to continue tonight into Tuesday. The wind direction should veer to east south-easterly early Wednesday, becoming occasional strong (40 - 50km/h) Wednesday afternoon/evening. Direction should back to north-easterly by Thursday afternoon.
A thin dust patches moving along the trade winds, mixed with occasional sea spray is creating slight hazy conditions on our horizon.
Mean sea level readings should range 1010 -1012 mb briefly dipping to 1008 – 1010 mb Tuesday night.
Wave heights are rising in response to increasing wind speeds on the ocean and east north-easterly swells on west coast could peak near 1.8m and on east coasts near 2.4m by late Tuesday; originating from east by Wednesday….Mariners should be cautious due to above normal swells and gusty winds.
NOTES Based on 12z analysis:
Three tropical waves are in the Tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.
Tropical wave along 53W from 08N-21N, moving west at 10-15 kt. A 700 mb trough is depicted by model analyses with the wave, and there is a local maximum in TPW. It is likely that the
tropical wave along 47W will be merging with this wave over the next 24 hours. Moisture associated with these waves is likely to enhance showers and thunderstorms over the Lesser
Antilles Tuesday into Wednesday, and this activity will spread to the eastern Caribbean Sea during the middle of the week...about 480 nmiles away
A low amplitude tropical wave extends along 47W from 01N-15N, moving west at 15-20 kt. A 700 mb trough is shown by model analyses with this wave. TPW imagery indicates abundant
moisture in its environment. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 04N-11N between 44W-50W…...about 840 nmiles away …both tropical waves to merge to be
affecting islands Tuesday through to Thursday possibly Friday
A tropical wave just off the coast of W Africa along 18W from 02N-15N, moving W at 15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a distinct moisture area around the wave axis. Scattered moderate
convection is from 02N-08N between 14W-20W.
Follow us on facebook 