Dry and stable mid to upper levels across our area (SVG), is resulting in fair and sunny conditions, but low level moisture along with daytime heating and gentle winds could cause few localized showers in isolated areas. Gentle to moderate (15 - 30km/h) north-easterly breeze is expected this afternoon into Saturday morning. Over the weekend, gentle breeze during daytime into the night should be increasing
to moderate breeze by early mornings. A veering to east south-east overnight Monday should indicate the crossing of a tropical wave.
Mean sea level (MSL) readings across our area should be ranging 1012 – 1014 mb. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure north-east of island chain has a good (90%) chance for tropical or subtropical development but it is not expected directly threaten to the island chain.
During Sunday, the low pressure area north of the Island chain could induce a trough system across the Lesser Antilles causing increased moisture/instability with few showers by night fall. After a temporary drying during Monday, a tropical wave should be approaching the islands late Monday with increased shower activity into Tuesday.
Good visibility is expected along with slight seas ranging 0.5m - 1.2m across SVG. By late Saturday, smooth seas may be experienced especially on west coasts, with gradual rise in wave heights across SVG expected by late Monday.
Notes:
A low pressure system about 1200 miles east-northeast of the Northern Leeward has changed little in organization since last night. However, there is a good chance (90%) that this system could become a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today or tonight while it moves generallyNorth-ward over the central Atlantic. Then, the low is forecast to turn westward and remain well to the north or northeast of the Lesser Antilles through early next week.
Tropical wave along 44W/45W from 13N southward with ITCZ-related precipitation surrounding this tropical wave. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rain-showers are from 05N to 08N between 43W and 53W…. about 960 nmiles away… vicinity late Monday
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