A lower level trough is affecting the region with periods of light rain, moderate to heavy showers and isolated thunderstorm activity. A cyclonic swirl is evident on satellite imagery, centered across the Northern Windward Islands around St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe…(see image at 12:15 pm compliments RAMMB) Upper level conditions are supporting the south easterly
wind flow bringing moisture across the islands. Instability and shower activity is likely to spread across parts of mainland St.Vincent. Hence, the FLOOD-WATCH remains in effect for ST VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES until 6:00 pm today and may be upgraded to a Warning if conditions warrant/or extended due to mid-upper level conditions. Residents and motorists in areas prone to flooding and land-slides; near rivers, streams and low-lying areas should take the necessary precautions. Another low level trough should near the island chain late Sunday, but moisture is expected to pull away from our area to north-east of the island chain with a possible deepening of the trough. It is expected to move towards the Greater Antilles by mid-week possibly as a cyclone.
Variable wind direction this morning veered to east south-easterly gentle/moderate (10-25km/h) breeze nearing midday, and should vary again by tonight. A veer to south easterly is expected by Sunday afternoon while decreasing to light/calm (less than 10km/h) by Sunday evening. A thin patch of dust could cause slight haze during Tuesday, pushed by increasing wind speeds becoming fresh by mid week.
Mean Sea level Pressure readings should range between 1009mb and 1012mb across our area.
Slight seas on the west coasts should peak near 1.2m; while on the east coasts slight to moderate seas should peak near 1.8m with east north-easterly swells, wave heights should be increasing by mid-week.
Notes:
Tropical wave along 28W/29W from 11N southward. ITCZ-related precipitation is near by.…. about 1920 nmiles away
Tropical wave along 47W/48W from 16N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rain-showers are from 11N to 16N between 39W and 47W…. about 780 nmiles east of Lesser Antilles… creating trough in vicinity late Sunday. There is a low (30%) chance for subtropical or tropical development during next week as the system moves near or to the north of the Greater Antilles… inducing instability in vicinity late Tuesday/Wednesday