An induced mid to lower-level cyclonic circulation across the Leeward Islands continues to fuel the unstable conditions lingering across Eastern Caribbean. Across St.Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG), elevated moisture levels throughout the atmosphere could trigger occasional light to moderate showers tonight. The Flood–watch is now discontinued, but a Flash flood alert is in effect for residents and motorists in areas prone to flash-flooding…See image at 5:20pm compliments RAMMB.
Flash flood: A flood caused by heavy or excessive rainfall in a short period of time, generally less than 6 hour. They can occur within minutes or a few hours of excessive rainfall.
A decrease lower level moisture (cloudiness) and shower activity is anticipated during Saturday as the circulation fills, but localized daytime heating may trigger isolated showers/thunderstorm activity before a pocket of dry air crosses our area late Saturday.Moisture at lower levels should increase during Sunday behind a weak lower level trough/tropical wave axis. Meanwhile, upper-level features could occasionally enhance scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Models suggest that significant shower activity for this event can be expected south of our Grenadine Islands…persons vulnerable to heavy rainfall accumulations and thunderstorm activity should be alert. General reduction in cloudiness and showers is expected on Monday.
East south-easterly gentle to moderate (10 - 30 km/h) breeze should continue into the weekend; occasionally increasing to fresh by Sunday afternoon, bringing equatorial moisture/showers across our area.
Slight to moderate sea conditions are expected with Sea-swells ranging 0.6m to 1.2m on the west coasts and 1.2m to 1.8m east coasts, originating from the north-east.
Barometric readings should range 1011mb to 1014mb across our area, slightly dipping late Saturday with the passage of a trough.
A thin patch of Saharan dust could occasionally reduce visibility with slight haze during Sunday. A mass of Saharan dust is being tracked to approach our area Monday night.
NOTE: A broad area of low pressure accompanied by cloudiness and showers centered over the Yucatan Peninsula is forecast to move westward over the southern Bay of Campeche during the weekend. There is a 20-30%chance for development over next few days.
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