Moisture at lower levels should be increasing this afternoon and scattered showers are expected. Upper-level features are currently supportive of shower activity and isolated thunderstorms south of our Grenadine Islands, but an eastward shift in upper level trough should result in less support overnight. Nonetheless, residents and motorists should be alert near waterways, rivers, streams and low lying areas.
A tropical wave pushing quickly towards the Southern Windward Islands could bring a few showers during Monday. Meanwhile, a mass of Saharan dust being transported by an Atlantic High Pressure circulation should blanket the island chain this week. Persons with respiratory conditions should be aware that dust concentrations could significantly increase by Monday afternoon and PM2.5 levels could peak near 22µg/m3 while PM10 levels peak near 39µg/m3 during Tuesday. Hazy conditions of varying intensity could reduce visibility and persist for a few days and lower-level cloud patches moving along with the wind-flow could result in showers alternating with hazy conditions.
South-easterly moderate to fresh (20 - 40 km/h) breeze should continue bringing equatorial moisture/showers across our area. A reduction in speeds to moderate is expected late Tuesday.
Slight to moderate sea conditions are expected with Sea-swells ranging 0.6m to 1.2m on the west coasts and 1.2m to 1.8m east coasts, originating from the north-east.
Barometric readings should range 1013mb to 1016mb across our area.
Notes: A low pressure system located over the southern Bay of Campeche has changed little in organization since yesterday. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward toward the coast of Mexico and could become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland in a day or two.
Tropical waves between west coast Africa and Lesser Antilles:
Along 15W from 11N southward shows up well as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. Convection is noted at the base of this wave, and also near 08N15W.
Along 28W from 11N southward with Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection near ITCZ, from 04N to 06N between 27W and 29W and a surge of moistened air with a 700 mb trough.
Along 46W from 12N southward but Convection is limited near the wave axis. The wave is collocated with a 700 mb trough and moderate to fresh NE to E winds ahead of the wave axis, and N of 07N.
Follow us on Facebook via 