The High Pressure System is dominant across the islands with patchy concentrations of Saharan dust (20 - 40 ug/m3) of varying intensity. A lower-level trough is expected to affect the Leewards and northern Windwards tonight which may spread a few shallow showers across our islands. A vigorous tropical wave is expected to approach the Windward Islands bringing increased cloudiness across St.Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) by Wednesday afternoon
and scattered showers into the night. Upper level support should cause instability to peak on Thursday with moderate to heavy showers, gusty winds and scattered thunderstorm activity. Based on model indications, rainfall accumulations in excess of 75mm (3 inches) are possible from early Thursday into the night. Higher amounts can be expected across parts of SVG especially in mountainous areas…. Residents and motorists should be alert and exercise caution in areas prone to flooding and thunderstorm activity/lightning strikes. Instability could linger into Friday, but cloudiness and shower activity should be reduced by afternoon.
Moderate (20 - 35 km/h) north-east trades are expected across the islands this afternoon, backing to north-north-easterly tonight. Directions may vary during Wednesday. Wind surges are associated with the next tropical wave which should bring some gusty winds near showers on Thursday before reducing to light early Friday. Moderate breeze should return Friday afternoon.
Slight to moderate sea conditions are across SVG again, with easterly swells ranging 1.0 m – 2.0 m across our islands. Small craft operators should still exercise caution as occasional moderate haze could reduce visibility this afternoon. The haze should thin out with the approach of the vigorous tropical wave to increase again late Friday.
Tropical waves between west coast Africa and Lesser Antilles:
Along 21W from 05N to 22N moving westward at 10-15 kt and satellite imagery indicates a possible mid-level circulation near 14N21W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen within 180 nm either side of the wave axis from 05N to 10N… 2400 miles away… vicinity Sunday/Mon 8th
Along 40W from 02N to 17N moving westward at estimated speed of 20-25 kt with a trade wind surge trailing the wave with a maxima in moisture content from 04N to 11N and between 35W-42W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 06N to 10N, between 38W and 42W… 1260 miles away… vicinity late Wednesday into Thursday, exits Friday
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