Hazy conditions should thin-out across our area this afternoon, giving way to cloudiness with showers as a tropical wave moves closer to the island chain. Pockets of moderate to heavy showers with strong gusts and thunderstorm activity can be expected tonight across the Windward Islands, including St.Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG).
see image at 11:30am compliments RAMMB.
Additional instability due to a northward shift of the Inter–Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) could enhance shower activity during Monday across the Grenadine Islands….Motorists and residents should EXERCISE CAUTION, as flash-flooding and squally conditions are possible. Latest model analysis indicates rainfall accumulations in excess of 100mm (4 inches) possible across SVG from Sunday 14th 6pm and especially across the Grenadine Islands until Monday 15th 6pm.
Shower activity should be reduced late Monday, followed by a trough system which should approach the region on Tuesday. Moisture converging behind its axis could bring scattered showers with isolated thunderstorm activity by early Wednesday.
At the surface, moderate to fresh (25 - 40 km/h) north-easterly trades should increase to strong breeze (40 - 50 km/h) tonight, with higher gusts possible near showers. Fresh to strong breeze should continue during Monday, veering slightly as the tropical wave passes and returning to moderate/fresh by evening. Large branches may be in motion overhead wires may burst and loose items may become dislodged.
Sea conditions are currently slight to moderate, with easterly swells ranging 1.2 – 1.8 on the west coasts and up to 2.2m on the east coast. Increased wind speeds overnight could cause increased wave heights, peaking near 2.2m on the west coast and near 3.0m on the east coast on Monday...Small craft operators and sea bathers are being warned due to increasing swells and gusty winds which could create moderate to rough/squally conditions...Wave heights should retreat during Tuesday, becoming slight to moderate (1.2 – 2.2m) by late Tuesday. Occasional slight haze is possible behind shower activity late Monday and again late Wednesday.
Tropical waves between west coast Africa and Lesser Antilles:
Along 28W from 17N southward, moving W around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N-09N between 20W-34W...1980miles away…vicinity Wednesday 17th
Along 51/52W from 22N southward, moving W around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-12N between 50W-57W. Enhanced rain-showers are expected for the Windward Islands…540miles away…vicinity late Sunday 14th into Monday