A trough system is creating weak unstable conditions across the region with most of the shower activity south of Grenada (across Trinidad and Tobago). This afternoon, scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms could spread across our islands as the trough exits the island chain. A tropical wave should take its place, resulting in increased cloudiness, showers and thunderstorm activity by Thursday into Friday morning.
see image at 10:40am compliments RAMMB...
Models indicate rainfall accumulations could range 75 – 125 mm (3 - 5 inches) across our area during this period…Motorists and residents should be alert for flash-flooding.
The Atlantic High Pressure System should dominate conditions by Friday afternoon until a trough enters the region late Saturday. Moisture associated with a tropical wave should converge across the region on Monday, with significant showers and wind activity expected south of our area…being monitored.
At the surface, moderate to fresh (25 - 40 km/h) east south-easterly breeze should decrease to moderate overnight with varying directions. Moderate to fresh breeze should return temporarily on Friday.
Sea conditions are currently slight to moderate, with easterly swells ranging 0.6 – 1.2 m on the west coasts and up to 2.0 m on the east coasts. Increased wind speeds on Friday could cause slight increased wave heights, peaking near 1.8 m on the west coasts and near 2.2 m on the east coast during Friday.
Moderate haze can be expected behind the shower activity on Friday with a patch of thick Saharan dust.
Tropical waves between west coast Africa and Lesser Antilles:
Along 22W from 20N southward, moving west at about 10 kt with scattered moderate convection in the vicinity from 06N-09N between 20W-27W...2340 miles away…south of our area next Monday/Tuesday
A mid-latitude trough along 30W from 30N-20N with scattered showers…1860miles away…vicinity north of island chain Saturday night into Sunday 21st
Along 49W from 22N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt with scattered showers…720miles away…vicinity Thursday into Friday morning
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