The Atlantic High Pressure System is dominant across the islands, but low level cloud patches moving within the wind-flow could bring brief isolated showers. A weak lower level trough should cross the area on Saturday. Meanwhile dust concentrations of varying intensity and associated dry-air are analyzed in the upper lower to mid levels
(between 800mb and 650mb), should be thinned out across our area by Saturday night with the approach of the next tropical wave.
The tropical wave could result in periods of rain, occasional moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorm activity from overnight Saturday/early Sunday. Occasional squally conditions are possible with winds from varying directions. This approaching tropical wave appears to be well organized with ‘some spin’ and is being monitored for any development. Pockets of dry air at the upper levels could negate some shower activity, but instability is expected to linger on Monday with the approach of a mid-level trough supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity.
Surface winds are expected to be moderate to occasionally fresh (25 - 40 km/h) from the north-east. A reduction in wind speeds should be noticeable during Sunday, becoming gentle to moderate by afternoon and veering to south-east.
Sea conditions are currently slight to moderate, with easterly swells peaking near 1.5 m on the west coasts and up to 2.2 m on the east coasts.
Barometric readings should range 1014mb - 1017mb as the High Pressure dominates, dipping to 1012 – 1015 mb by Sunday with passage of tropical wave and trough.
Tropical waves between west coast Africa and Lesser Antilles:
Along 17W from 05N-17N, moving W at 15-20 kt with scattered moderate convection along the coast of Senegal, Guinea Bissau and Guinea from 10N-14N between 15W-20W.…2640miles away…vicinity lat Tuesday/Wednesday 31st
Along 40W from 02N-19N, moving W at 20 kt with widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-16W between 31W-42W. …1260miles away… vicinity Sunday 28th
Along 48W from 03N-12N, moving W at 20 kt with widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-12N between 42W- 49W....…780miles away…vicinity Saturday 27th