A weak lower level trough ahead of approaching tropical wave crossed the islands with some showers and thunderstorm activity this morning. Patches of dust with varying intensity should be thinned-out across our area tonight, as the well-defined tropical wave approaches the region.
The tropical wave is well organized with ‘some spin’, but further development is not expected as dry air is being entrained in the spin. Skies should become increasingly cloudy with periods of rain, pockets of moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorm activity moving across the islands overnight. Occasional squally conditions with winds from varying directions are expected during Sunday...Be Alert for possible flash-flooding
(50mm across SVG, greater across northern Windward Islands).
1800z image compliments CIMMS, depicting dry-air and dus, as well as tropical wave moving closer to the island chain.
This alert may be upgraded to flood-watch if conditions warrant. Shower activity should be decreased late Sunday, but elevated moisture levels and instability should linger. A mid-level trough and equatorial moisture converging across our area could bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity by early Monday (60 - 75mm) and reduced amounts across our area on Tuesday as a trough moves closer to the Leeward Islands.
Radar image compliments Meteo France and Satellite image compliments RAMMB- 4:30pm today
Surface winds are expected to be moderate to occasionally fresh (20 - 40 km/h) from the north-northeast overnight. A reduction in wind is expected early Sunday, becoming light by afternoon and veering towards the south. Speeds should be gradually increasing and backing to easterly by late Tuesday.
Sea conditions are currently slight to moderate, with east north-easterly swells, but gradually decreasing to become slight by Monday and range 0.5 to 1.5 m across SVG. Thin patches of dust concentration should remain over next few days, possibly increasing late Tuesday.
Barometric readings should be dipping as low as 1011 mb over next couple days with passage of well-defined tropical wave and gradually rising by Tuesday.
Tropical waves between west coast Africa and Lesser Antilles:
Along 28W/29W from 20N southward with scattered moderate to strong rain-showers from 08N to 10N between 28W and 30W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rain-showers cover the rest of the area from 05N to 12N between 23W and 33W…1920miles away
Along 38W/39W from 20N southward with a 1012mb low pressure center near 14N. Isolated moderate rain-showers from 05N to 15N between 36W and 43W…1320miles away… trough in vicinity late Tuesday/Wednesday 31st
Along 54W/55W from 20N southward with scattered moderate to isolated strong rain-showers from 09N to 15N between 52W and 60W...…420miles away…across island chain Sunday 28th
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