The tropical wave which affected our area late Saturday and Sunday has since moved into the Caribbean Sea and is now being tracked as a disturbance. The disturbance is moving away from our islands expected to bring heavy rainfall and possibly some flooding across portions of these islands. Little or no development of this disturbance is anticipated during the next couple of days. However, conditions could become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation as the system reaches the Florida Straits or the Bahamas over the weekend.
A mid-level trough and equatorial moisture converging across our area created unstable conditions with light to moderate showers across the northern portion of mainland this morning. This afternoon, a few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible due to localized effects and day-time heating across our islands. A weak trough is expected to move closer to the island chain late Tuesday with scattered showers. Dust concentrations should be increasing across our islands early Wednesday as the Atlantic High Pressure System rebuilds.
The next tropical wave should be approaching the island chain by Friday and is being monitored for any development.
Gentle surface winds (10 - 20 km/h) from the south-east should continue this afternoon. Wind speeds should be gradually increasing and backing to easterly late Tuesday and moderate to fresh breeze are expected by mid-week.
Sea conditions are slight in open water with east north-easterly swells, ranging 0.5 to 1.5 m across SVG. The increase in wind speeds should result in slight to moderate swells by Wednesday.
Barometric readings should gradually rise to range 1013 - 1015 mb by Tuesday.
Tropical waves between west coast Africa and Lesser Antilles:
Along 19W, from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt with scattered moderate to strong convection from 08N-10N between 17W-22W. Elsewhere from 07N-15N between 15W-25W, isolated to scattered moderate convection. The wave is well-marked by 700 mb trough diagnostics, and large scale curvature is noted in satellite imagery…2520miles away….vicinity late Saturday into Sunday 4th August
Along 37/38W from 20N southward, moving W around 15 kt with scattered moderate convection from 04N-10N between 33W-42W… 1380miles away…vicinity Friday 2nd
Trough along 48/49W from 18N southward, moving W around 15 kt with isolated to scattered showers are within 270 nm of the wave axis, south of 12N …720 miles away… vicinity late Tuesday 30th.
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