There are scattered showers across our area, ahead of the approaching tropical wave. The relatively dry axis should cross our area this evening, but moisture behind the axis should bring scattered showers overnight into Friday. Isolated thunderstorm activity is possible by late Friday with a trailing trough. Few isolated showers are possible Saturday and Sunday as weak shearline features associated with a broad area of low pressure, propagate across the islands.
The broad low pressure system is about 1380 miles away from the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is possible for the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 - 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development with a high (70%) chance of a depression just east of the Lesser Antilles during Saturday. The system could be near Tropical depression/strong tropical wave strength as it approaches the island chain on Monday…. Persons across the Lesser Antilles should be Alert! This system is being closely monitored for any development near the island chain.
Moderate surface winds (20 - 30 km/h) from the north-east should continue this afternoon. Wind speeds should gradually decrease to gentle during Friday and veer to south-easterly as the tropical wave exits the area. Wind speeds should increase again late Friday before decreasing during Sunday.
Sea conditions are slight to moderate in open water with easterly swells, ranging 0.5 to 1.2 m on the west coasts and up to 1.5 m on east coasts of St. Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG). Occasional reduction in wind speeds could result in slight (0.5 -1.2m) sea conditions over the next few days. No dust concentrations are expected, but occasional thin patches may be noticeable on our horizon over the weekend.
Barometric readings should dip slightly with passage of tropical wave later today, then range 1013 - 1015 mb by Friday.
Tropical waves and troughs between west coast Africa and Lesser Antilles:
Along 21W from 02N-16N, moving W at 15-20 kt with scattered moderate convection within 30 nm E and 240 nm W of the wave axis from 07N-12N…2400miles away….vicinity late Monday 5th
Along 37/38W from 03N-18N, moving W around 15 kt with a 1009 mb low near 10N37W. Scattered showers with isolated moderate convection are from 05N-13N between 32W-46W. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for further development this weekend as the wave moves westward, and a tropical depression is likely to form east of the Lesser Antilles…1380miles away…shearline Sunday 4th evening
Along 54/55W from 04N-24N, moving W around 15 kt with well defined low level precipitable water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the wave axis north of 21N. This wave will move through the Lesser Antilles by late Friday bringing some rainfall to the islands.… 360miles away…vicinity late Thursday/Friday 2nd