Few surface to low level troughs continue to generate occasional scattered showers across the islands. One such trough is expected to approach the region tonight.
At upper levels occasional support due to divergence as well as possible orientation of a short wave trough on Thursday could result in scattered showers. An increase in moisture at mid levels is expected on Friday, as convergence behind the trough axis lingers across the islands (models indicate showers concentrating just north of SVG). The next trough should move in by Friday night with good upper level support (divergence yet relatively dry) to possibly enhance showers. Some moisture convergence behind axis could result in some showers again on Saturday.
Moderate (20-28km/h) breeze should continue tonight with occasional fresh gusts. A reduction in winds speeds s expected on Thursday, becoming gentle (12-19km/h) by evening. A gradual increase should return speeds to moderate/fresh (20-38km/h) breeze by Saturday with occasional strong (39-49km/h)gusts.
Slight seas on the west and moderate seas on the east should increase by Friday night peaking on the east coasts by Saturday evening to possibly 3.0m.
Slight haze on the horizon should thicken on Thursday, with dust concentrations reaching 80-160 ug/m**3 by evening, to reduce visibility and air quality into the weekend. Small craft operators (air/sea) and persons with respiratory ailments should exercise caution.
SPECIAL FEATURE being termed ‘Winter Storm Grayson’... At 11am today, a vigorous middle to upper level trough over the North East Gulf of Mexico and Florida panhandle, was supporting development of areas of low pressure off the coast of South-East Florida and another farther north of the coast. A cold front extends from the southern-most low across western Cuba and into the Caribbean Sea.