Cloudiness due to low to mid level moisture moved into our area during Saturday night, associated with a High Pressure building east of the island chain, as well as a Low Pressure north of the island chain. These two features are creating unstable conditions across our islands, with few scattered showers.
Shower activity should gradually increase across the Windwards Islands later today, with possible rainfall accumulations of near 1 inch (20mm). By tomorrow Monday, a surface trough/shearline is expected to deepen across the eastern Caribbean creating unstable conditions across St.Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG). Residents and motorists should be on the alert, as latest model analysis indicates further rainfall accumulations of over 2 inches (60mm) are possible across parts of SVG. Instability could linger into Tuesday with High building on Wednesday.
The flow around the Atlantic High Pressure should steer southerly gentle to moderate (20-25km/h) breeze across our area this afternoon. Occasionally calm to light (<12km/h) breeze tonight into Monday, due to the meeting of the two features should change on Monday as the frontal boundary pushes northerly breeze into our area. A fall in Mean sea-level pressure expected overnight (between 1008-1010mb), gradually rising again by Monday to range 1014-1016mb by Wednesday as the High Pressure builds across our area. Models indicate some smoke concentrations drifting over the Caribbean Sea (off South America) could affect visibility on distant west overnight, but reduction in visibility is possible across SVG by Wednesday due to dust concentrations.
Smooth seas on the west and slight seas on the east in open water should continue today with northerly swells up to 1.5m. However, some deterioration in sea conditions is projected for overnight Sunday into Monday with moderate to rough (1.8 to 3.0 m) northerly to north-westerly swells on east and west of SVG. The deep-layered low pressure system in the northern Atlantic is propagating large swells southwards to the eastern Caribbean. A HIGH-SURF ADVISORY and SMALL CRAFT WARNING will be in effect from 6pm today until 6pm Wednesday 7th March.