Weak low level troughs are crossing our islands on the south-western edge of the Central Atlantic High Pressure System. Another shearline/trough is expected tonight and mid to upper level conditions are enhancing these troughs resulting in cloudiness with occasional showers.
Instability should linger across our area and possibly intensify by Monday due to expected positioning of an upper jet aiding another lower level trough. Moderate to heavy showers and periods of rain are possible across the Leeward and northern Windward Islands, which could extend southwards to our area as south easterly flow couples with upper level enhancement late Monday into Tuesday.
Another surface to low level trough should be moving into our area late Tuesday, but shower activity should be decreasing as the upper level jet/trough support should have shifted eastward.
Moderate to fresh (20-40 km/h) east north-easterly breeze should continue, veering to east south-easterly by Sunday afternoon and decreasing temporarily. Mean sea-level pressure should range 1012-1014 mb rising slightly to 1016 mb as the Western Atlantic and Central Atlantic High couples on Monday sandwiching troughs.
Slight to moderate (1.2 m -2.5 m) sea swells should peak near 1.8 m on the west and 2.5 m on the east coast into tonight. Small craft operators and sea bathers are still being advised to exercise caution. A decrease in wave heights is expected during Sunday to slight on the west (peak near 1.2 m) and slight to moderate on the east (peak near 1.8 m) by afternoon.