Bands of lower level moisture associated with weak surface to low level troughs are converging across our area. Enhancement from mi-upper level features can result in periods of rain and occasional moderate showers especially in mountainous areas. The next surface to low level trough is expected later today with moisture converging behind the trough early Wednesday.
Upper levels are becoming less favourable, but some moisture pools below 700 mb are expected to support moderate to heavy shower activity across some Windward Islands during Wednesday and Thursday. Additionally, a shearline feature could add to instability on Thursday, as the shearline dips southward across SVG with scattered showers....(Rainfall accumulations to be monitored) Some decrease in shower activity is expected Friday, but models indicate possible increase again on Saturday as another trough approaches.
Moderate breeze (20-30 km/h) varying from the east north-east to east south-east can be expected this afternoon. Some increase in speeds is possible during Thursday, with fresh (29-38 km/h) breeze expected by nightfall. East north-east trades should prevail on Friday.
Mean sea-level pressure should generally range 1013-1016 mb. Sea swells are expected to be slight on the west (0.6 m - 1.2 m) and slight to moderate (1.0 m - 1.8 m) on the east for this afternoon. A slight drop in wave heights is expected overnight into Wednesday (0.6 m-1.0 m and 1.0 m - 1.5 m). The increase in wind speeds during Thursday should result in wave heights rising again during the night, to 1.2m-1.8 m on west and 1.5 m - 2.4 m on the east. Advisory to exercise caution may be issued.Thin patches of dust concentration of varying intensity would reduce visibility on the horizon.